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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, January 1, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/1.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, January 1, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.4% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 15.4% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.0% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.9% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.9% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 12.9% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.7% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 12.4% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 11.9% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 11.8% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 11.7% |
| Kel'el Ware | Heat | 11.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 1.8% | +800 | 12.9% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 1.6% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Jordan Walsh | Celtics | 1.0% | +1300 | 8.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.9% | +750 | 12.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.7% | +1100 | 9.1% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 0.5% | +950 | 10.0% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 0.1% | +1200 | 7.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/1.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, January 1, 2026, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis lead our first basket projections, while Keyonte George shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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