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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 1, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/1.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 1, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Jaylen Brown lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.0% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.9% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.0% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 15.9% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 15.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.0% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 13.9% |
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 13.8% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.2% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 12.7% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 4.3% | +950 | 13.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.6% | +750 | 14.4% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 2.6% | +950 | 12.1% |
| Julian Strawther | Nuggets | 2.4% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 2.1% | +850 | 12.7% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.0% | +950 | 11.5% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 1.5% | +550 | 16.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 1.5% | +800 | 12.6% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.1% | +700 | 13.6% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 0.5% | +750 | 12.3% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 0.2% | +550 | 15.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/1.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 1, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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