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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, January 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, January 4, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Zion Williamson lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.0% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.5% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 15.4% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.1% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.9% |
| Ja Morant | Grizzlies | 13.3% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.2% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.1% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 11.7% |
| Kel'el Ware | Heat | 11.6% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.4% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 11.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 3.9% | +1300 | 11.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 3.2% | +600 | 17.5% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 2.7% | +480 | 20.0% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.8% | +950 | 11.3% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.5% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 0.9% | +900 | 10.9% |
| Ja Morant | Grizzlies | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 0.0% | +900 | 10.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, January 4, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Zion Williamson lead our first basket projections, while Cedric Coward shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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