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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, April 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, April 4, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jalen Duren and Tyler Herro lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.0% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.4% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 12.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 11.6% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 11.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 11.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 10.6% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 10.4% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 10.3% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.0% |
| Daniss Jenkins | Pistons | 9.9% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 9.8% |
| Will Riley | Wizards | 9.7% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 9.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins | Pistons | 1.6% | +1100 | 9.9% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, April 4, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Duren and Tyler Herro lead our first basket projections, while Daniss Jenkins shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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