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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, January 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, January 3, 2026—are live with the Trail Blazers' Shaedon Sharpe projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Sharpe, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 16.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.7% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.3% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.9% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 14.3% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.4% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.1% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 13.1% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 13.0% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.9% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.8% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | Celtics | 1.7% | +1100 | 10.0% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Kel'el Ware | Heat | 1.0% | +850 | 11.5% |
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 0.4% | +550 | 15.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 0.1% | +600 | 14.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, January 3, 2026, Shaedon Sharpe, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, while Derrick White shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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