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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, January 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, January 3, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 16.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.9% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.4% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.3% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.6% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.1% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.9% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.7% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.7% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 12.6% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick White | Celtics | 2.3% | +1200 | 10.0% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.1% | +550 | 16.5% |
| Kel'el Ware | Heat | 1.0% | +850 | 11.5% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 0.5% | +750 | 12.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.2% | +700 | 12.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 0.1% | +600 | 14.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, January 3, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, while Derrick White shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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