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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 9, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.7% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.4% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 13.5% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 13.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.8% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.7% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 12.5% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 12.4% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12.3% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 11.7% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 11.6% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 11.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 2.7% | +700 | 15.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 1.6% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | 1.5% | +1300 | 8.6% |
| Adem Bona | 76ers | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 0.7% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 0.6% | +900 | 10.6% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.0% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 9, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, with Jokic shaping as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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