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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 2, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/2.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 2, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Kevin Durant and Keyonte George lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.4% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 14.3% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Celtics | 13.9% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.5% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 13.1% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.5% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 11.9% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 11.8% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 11.6% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 11.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.2% |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | 10.8% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 10.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 10.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 3.0% | +950 | 12.5% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 2.9% | +1100 | 11.2% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 1.2% | +950 | 10.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.1% | +650 | 14.4% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 1.0% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Celtics | 0.5% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Baylor Scheierman | Celtics | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 0.3% | +950 | 9.8% |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | 0.2% | +850 | 10.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/2.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 2, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Keyonte George lead our first basket projections, while De'Anthony Melton shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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