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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, January 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, January 5, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 16.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.6% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.7% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.7% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 14.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.4% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.5% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.3% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.9% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 2.2% | +700 | 14.7% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.9% | +700 | 14.4% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.3% | +650 | 14.7% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.9% | +850 | 11.4% |
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Bruce Brown | Nuggets | 0.3% | +850 | 10.8% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.1% | +800 | 11.3% |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 0.1% | +900 | 10.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, January 5, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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