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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, April 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, April 3, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Pascal Siakam projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Siakam, Jaylen Brown and Tre Jones lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 16.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.8% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 14.1% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.9% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 13.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 13.5% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.4% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 13.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.1% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 13.0% |
| Ziaire Williams | Nets | 12.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.8% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.8% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 5.0% | +1000 | 14.1% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 4.1% | +1100 | 12.4% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 3.9% | +900 | 13.9% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 2.6% | +1100 | 11.0% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 1.9% | +950 | 11.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.4% | +700 | 13.9% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 0.8% | +800 | 11.9% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 0.2% | +700 | 12.7% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 0.0% | +650 | 13.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, April 3, 2026, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown and Tre Jones lead our first basket projections, with Jones shaping as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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