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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 9, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 17.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.2% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 15.8% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 15.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.3% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 15.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.2% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.1% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.9% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.6% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.2% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 6.1% | +600 | 20.4% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.2% | +650 | 15.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.7% | +700 | 14.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 1.7% | +550 | 17.0% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 1.2% | +800 | 12.3% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 0.1% | +850 | 10.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 9, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, with Antetokounmpo shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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