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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 2, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/2.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 2, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 19.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 16.8% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.3% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 14.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.1% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 14.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.2% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 4.2% | +800 | 15.3% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.8% | +1100 | 11.1% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.7% | +950 | 11.2% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 1.2% | +950 | 10.7% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.7% | +800 | 11.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.7% | +650 | 14.1% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 0.7% | +900 | 10.7% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 0.6% | +700 | 13.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.3% | +500 | 17.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.1% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/2.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 2, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray lead our first basket projections, while Stephen Curry shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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