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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 2, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/2.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 2, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 19.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 16.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 16.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.0% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 14.6% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | Nets | 14.3% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.1% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 14.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.2% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.8% | +1100 | 11.1% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 2.2% | +700 | 14.7% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 2.0% | +800 | 13.1% |
| Quinten Post | Warriors | 1.9% | +950 | 11.4% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.2% | +900 | 11.2% |
| Cedric Coward | Grizzlies | 0.7% | +900 | 10.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.3% | +500 | 17.0% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 0.2% | +850 | 10.7% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.1% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/2.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 2, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray lead our first basket projections, while Russell Westbrook shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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