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Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/31/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens will lock horns in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Tuesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 59% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-170) | -1.5 (+142) |
| Moneyline | +142 | -170 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Canadiens +1.5 | -170 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | +142 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Canadiens vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Point a 40.2% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 38.6% |
| Nick Suzuki | 28.8% |
| Ivan Demidov | 25.6% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 23.6% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 23.1% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 40.2% |
| Jake Guentzel | 39.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 39.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.1% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 24.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 7.8% |
| Nick Suzuki | 4.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.6% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 4.3% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.1% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 8.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.0% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.4% |
Habs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Lightning and Canadiens at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Tuesday, March 31, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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