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Canadiens vs. Islanders prediction: Montreal favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs NY Islanders predictions for NHL Sunday.
The NY Islanders and Montreal Canadiens are scheduled to meet in the NHL at UBS Arena on Sunday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Canadiens a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Islanders.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Canadiens vs. Islanders matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Isles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Islanders, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Canadiens a 51% chance of defeating the Islanders.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 71% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Islanders odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-245) | -1.5 (+210) |
| Moneyline | -105 | -115 |
| Total | o6.5 (+110) | u6.5 (-130) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Islanders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Canadiens +1.5 | -245 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | -105 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -130 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Canadiens +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Canadiens vs. Islanders player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Islanders?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Islanders.
Our projections give Caufield a 40.1% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is an 8.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 40.1% |
| Nick Suzuki | 30.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 28.8% |
| Alex Newhook | 24.7% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 24.7% |
NY Islanders
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 30.1% |
| Anders Lee | 29.5% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 24.3% |
| Brayden Schenn | 21.9% |
| Calum Ritchie | 21.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.4% |
| Nick Suzuki | 6.2% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.4% |
| Alex Newhook | 4.8% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.4% |
NY Islanders
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 6.0% |
| Anders Lee | 5.7% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 4.6% |
| Brayden Schenn | 3.9% |
| Calum Ritchie | 3.6% |
Habs vs. Isles game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Islanders and Canadiens at UBS Arena is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. NY Islanders
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
- Venue: UBS Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Canadiens, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders in Sunday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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