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MLB win totals predictions for every team and best bets for 2026 season
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Check out Dimers' season-long win projections for every MLB team in 2026.
With the 2026 MLB season on the horizon, we're digging into another MLB betting opportunity in futures alongside our best bets to win the World Series, with MLB season win totals. Whether you're looking to hammer an over on a sleeper squad or fade an overhyped contender, MLB win totals offer some of the best value on the sportsbooks before the first pitch is ever thrown.
By running thousands of season simulations and stacking our MLB predictions against the current MLB over/under lines set by the sportsbooks, Dimers' data can identify which teams are being priced incorrectly in either direction.
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Last year, our model flagged several mispriced sportsbook futures that cashed big, including the Blue Jays to win the AL East at +1300, and heading into 2026, the early win total landscape is already showing some glaring discrepancies worth acting on.
So whether you're targeting the AL East's arms race, fading a top five favorite with a shaky rotation, or looking for this year's unsuspecting sleeper, we've broken down every team's projected win total against the current market to find where preseason MLB betting value is hiding this season.
What Are MLB Win Totals?
MLB season win totals are one of the simplest and most popular bets in baseball betting. Before the season starts, sportsbooks set a projected win number for every team, and you would bet whether that team will finish the regular season over or under that number.
If you bet the over on the Yankees at 88.5 and they finish 91-71, you win. If they finish 85-77, you lose.
That's really all there is to it
It's a long-haul bet that ideally keeps you invested from Opening Day all the way through the final week of September over the course of a lengthy 162-game season.
Bettors can also parlay teams to hit their over or under, as well as play alternate win totals on teams they think can overperform by a notable margin.
2026 MLB win total projections for every team
| Team | Average Total Wins | Sportsbook Total | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 83.9 | 79.5 | 4.4 |
| Athletics | 82 | 75.5 | 6.5 |
| Atlanta Braves | 84.5 | 88.5 | -4 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 87.1 | 84.5 | 2.6 |
| Boston Red Sox | 81.7 | 87.5 | -5.8 |
| Chicago Cubs | 89.4 | 88.5 | 0.9 |
| Chicago White Sox | 69.2 | 66.5 | 2.7 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 76.5 | 82.5 | -6 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 74.6 | 80.5 | -5.9 |
| Colorado Rockies* | 66.8 | 52.5 | 14.3 |
| Detroit Tigers | 83.5 | 85.5 | -2 |
| Houston Astros | 86.5 | 86.5 | 0 |
| Kansas City Royals | 77.9 | 81.5 | -3.6 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 72 | 70.5 | 1.5 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 100 | 102.5 | -2.5 |
| Miami Marlins | 71.3 | 72.5 | -1.2 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 81.1 | 84.5 | -3.4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 77.7 | 73.5 | 4.2 |
| New York Mets | 94.5 | 90.5 | 4 |
| New York Yankees | 85.6 | 91.5 | -5.9 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 85.2 | 89.5 | -4.3 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 73.1 | 76.5 | -3.4 |
| San Diego Padres | 84.3 | 85.5 | -1.2 |
| San Francisco Giants | 79.8 | 80.5 | -0.7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 87.4 | 89.5 | -2.1 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 76.8 | 69.5 | 7.3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 81 | 77.5 | 3.5 |
| Texas Rangers | 77.8 | 83.5 | -5.7 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 88.7 | 88.5 | 0.2 |
| Washington Nationals | 70 | 65.5 | 4.5 |
*Note: The Rockies show the largest discrepancy over their win total, but also project with the lowest minimum at just 44 wins. Be cautious betting the over just based on the gap.
What stands out
Biggest discrepancies
Aside from the Rockies (see our note above), the Cardinals (+7.3), Athletics (+6.5), Nationals (+4.5), Diamondbacks (+4.4), Twins (+4.2) and Mets (+4.0) are the teams projected for at least 4 wins over their total.
On the under side, the Reds (-6), Yankees (-5.9), Guardians (-5.8), Rangers (-5.7), Phillies (-4.3) and Braves (-4) project for the most wins under their total.
AL East parity
All five teams in the AL East project between 81.7 and 88.7 wins. The reality is that at least one of those teams is likely to struggle and finish around 70 wins, but the question is which one?
The paradoxical Dodgers
The Dodgers present a unique case. They're the only team projected for 100+ wins, or even 95+, without rounding up the Mets. But their win total on the sportsbooks is set at 102.5, meaning the model still finds them overvalued on average.
Perhaps the model is telling us that no matter how many superstars you sign, that anything can happen over 162 games, even to an elite squad.
Best MLB win total bets
Besides the teams listed above with notable win total discrepancies, how can we use this MLB data to find a bet on the books?
Here are a few examples:
Most wins by any regular season team - over/under 104.5
Our full win total projections make this play pretty clear - with the Dodgers projected for the most wins at 100 and only on other team projected for at least 90 wins, the under looks like the play at -105 odds on DraftKings.
Number of teams to record 100+ regular season losses - over/under 1.5
The projections above indicate two teams to finish dangerously close to at least 100 losses (62 wins or fewer), the Rockies and White Sox. Their sportsbook lines suggest the Rockies will do so, but put the White Sox on the bubble.
If you think only one of them manages the unfortunate feat, you can get Under 1.5 teams for 100+ losses at +215 on DraftKings.
Most regular season wins
The Dodgers are the big favorite here of course, but a single injury or cold stretch can derail a team's trajectory, so if it isn't L.A., who leads the league in wins?
The odds open up some big value on the Mets, Blue Jays and Cubs, the three teams our model projects with the highest total behind Los Angeles.
The "most MLB regular season wins" market on DraftKings
Dimers' MLB betting resources for the 2026 season
- MLB Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every MLB game, every day.
- MLB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
- World Series Odds: Who will win it all?
- Best MLB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- MLb Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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