MLB Props: Two home run hitters to bet on today, Thursday, April 9

1. Munetaka Murakami to  hit a home run (+452 on DraftKings)

Game: White Sox vs. Royals

Time: 7:40 PM ET

Royals starter Seth Lugo posted a career-worst 27 home runs last year, continuing a trend of his three worst seasons as far as home runs over the past three years.

Lefties have had the 36-year-old's3 number of the past several years, giving up 40 home runs compared to 21 vs. righties over a similar number of innings. He hasn't given one up yet this year, but MLB's statcast says he's been lucky with the parks, as three of his fly balls would be a HR in a third of ballparks.

Both of our top-projected home run hitters for the White Sox are lefties, and they have 6 HR between them this year, Munetaka Murakami (14.1%) and Colson Montgomery (12.4%).

When facing lefties, Lugo has primarily used a curveball and four-seamer, with a little sinker/cutter/changeup mixed in. Montgomery slugged those pitches pretty well last year, but aside from his elite bat speed, isn't showing the fly ball power early on, even with his 2 home runs.

Murakami's profile is more favorable with 4 home runs (3 off of righties) and a 90th percentile Barrel % standing out most of all.

Dimers' hitter projections in Royals-White Sox on Thursday.

2. Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run (+468 on DraftKings)

Game: White Sox vs. Royals

Time: 7:40 PM ET

For our second bet, we're targeting the pitcher our model projects to give up the most earned runs, Anthony Kay of the Chicago White Sox at 2.95.

Prior to this season, Kay last pitched in the majors in 2023. He has a career ERA of 5.44 and has given up a HR in each of his two starts this season. His best asset is his ground ball %, ranking in the 73rd percentile in MLB so far this year, but he's in the bottom third of the league or worse for exit velocity, Barrels and hard hit balls, all positive for a batter.

Righthanded batters have the advantage, and for the Royals, Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt have the highest HR probability from our model for a righty, identical at 12.1% each.

Witt is looking for his first HR while Salvy has 2 so far, but Witt is making far more contact and hits Kay's primary pitch mix vs. righties much better. Weather could lead to a delay in the later innings, but warm temps and moderate wind blowing out could help the fly balls in Kaufman Stadium.

Fair odds for Witt would be around +700 so you won't get value at +468 on DraftKings, but things line up well for Witt to get his first dinger of the year.

MLB home run parlay at +2900 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these two home run props as a parlay at total odds of +2900 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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