MLB Props: Three pitchers to fade on Wednesday using Dimers' Sweet Spot

The latest addition to Dimers' MLB betting tools is off to great start, with our exclusive "Sweet Spot" signal making its debut in MLB props, turning in a 4-2 result on Tuesday, including three plus-money wins..

Designed to show you precisely which markets are returning a profit, the MLB Sweet Spot signal unlocks a whole new level of sportsbetting with one purpose: to help you bet smarter and beat the sportsbooks.

Built off the back of our already improved MLB props model for the 2026 season, Dimers Pro users have yet another advantage when it comes to betting on baseball.

Bet on Dimers' "Sweet Spot" MLB Props with a free trial

Out of more than 30 MLB player props identified by Dimers Pro today, only a select few hit this high-confidence "Sweet Spot" threshold.

To unlock unlimited access to every Sweet Spot bet across all sports, including our profitable MLB and NHL game lines, you’ll need a Dimers Pro subscription.

Pro Tip: Not a member yet? You can test the waters at no cost with a free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro right now. Get every Sweet Spot signal for the next 72 hours on us!

MLB "Sweet Spot" props for Wednesday, April 22

Prop bet: Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeouts (-118)

Matchup: Dodgers vs. Giants (9:45pm ET)

First up is our highest probability and best edge of them all, Giants SP Tyler Mahle to go under 4.5 strikeouts.

Mahle gets a 66.3% probability to go under his line with a big edge thanks to odds of -118 against our fair price of -195. 

Mahle has cleared this in 3 of 4 starts, but gets a Dodgers team that hits better than any other club in baseball and he doesn't pitch deep into games. If he gets knocked around early, he may not even have the distance to hit 5 Ks, with a projection of 3.6 strikeouts.

Over 30 early-season pitcher strikeout props at this edge range, we've seen a positive return of 18.7% ROI.

Prop bet: Tomoyuki Sugano under 3.5 strikeouts (-150)

Matchup: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40pm ET)

Our next bet comes with some juice, but it's another strong probability at 62.9% with a 2.9% edge.

Rockies SP Tomoyuki Sugano is our model's biggest pitcher fade of the day. He projects for 4.7 earned runs and 9.5 hits, both the most on the slate, and for just 2.9 strikeouts.

The Padres lineup leads almost every category for hitter projections today: four players in our top 10 HR probabilities and every hitter gets a higher probability to pick up at least one hit than any batter on any other team.

Sugano doesn't miss many bats with a K rate at just 17.4%, and has gone under this line in back-to-back starts, including against this Padres team in Coors Field.

Prop bet: Braxton Ashcraft under 5.5 strikeouts (-110)

Matchup: Pirates vs. Rangers (8:05pm ET)

The final Sweet Spot bet on Wednesday comes in the interleague matchup between the Pirates and Rangers, where Braxton Ashcraft draws a 54.9% probability to go under 5.5 strikeouts.

He's cleared the line in three straight starts after going well under with just 3 Ks in his opener vs. Cincinnati, but he'll face the toughest lineup he has to date, with the Rangers rankings 5th in MLB in batting average and OPS.

This is the closest bet on the board between our projection of 5.1 strikeouts for Ashcraft, but it's also the best odds and falls right into our Sweet Spot with an 18.7% ROI so far this season.

Dimers' MLB betting resources for the 2026 season

• MLB Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every MLB game, every day.
• MLB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
• World Series Odds: Who will win it all?
• Best MLB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• MLB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.