MLB Props: Three pitchers to fade on Wednesday using Dimers' Sweet Spot

Prop bet: Tyler Mahle under 4.5 strikeouts (-118)

Matchup: Dodgers vs. Giants (9:45pm ET)

First up is our highest probability and best edge of them all, Giants SP Tyler Mahle to go under 4.5 strikeouts.

Mahle gets a 66.3% probability to go under his line with a big edge thanks to odds of -118 against our fair price of -195. 

Mahle has cleared this in 3 of 4 starts, but gets a Dodgers team that hits better than any other club in baseball and he doesn't pitch deep into games. If he gets knocked around early, he may not even have the distance to hit 5 Ks, with a projection of 3.6 strikeouts.

Over 30 early-season pitcher strikeout props at this edge range, we've seen a positive return of 18.7% ROI.

Prop bet: Tomoyuki Sugano under 3.5 strikeouts (-150)

Matchup: Padres vs. Rockies (8:40pm ET)

Our next bet comes with some juice, but it's another strong probability at 62.9% with a 2.9% edge.

Rockies SP Tomoyuki Sugano is our model's biggest pitcher fade of the day. He projects for 4.7 earned runs and 9.5 hits, both the most on the slate, and for just 2.9 strikeouts.

The Padres lineup leads almost every category for hitter projections today: four players in our top 10 HR probabilities and every hitter gets a higher probability to pick up at least one hit than any batter on any other team.

Sugano doesn't miss many bats with a K rate at just 17.4%, and has gone under this line in back-to-back starts, including against this Padres team in Coors Field.

Prop bet: Braxton Ashcraft under 5.5 strikeouts (-110)

Matchup: Pirates vs. Rangers (8:05pm ET)

The final Sweet Spot bet on Wednesday comes in the interleague matchup between the Pirates and Rangers, where Braxton Ashcraft draws a 54.9% probability to go under 5.5 strikeouts.

He's cleared the line in three straight starts after going well under with just 3 Ks in his opener vs. Cincinnati, but he'll face the toughest lineup he has to date, with the Rangers rankings 5th in MLB in batting average and OPS.

This is the closest bet on the board between our projection of 5.1 strikeouts for Ashcraft, but it's also the best odds and falls right into our Sweet Spot with an 18.7% ROI so far this season.

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