MLB Props: Three home run hitters to parlay today, Wednesday, April 15

1. Ben Rice (Yankees) to hit a home run (+242)

Game: Angels vs. Yankees

Time: 7:05 PM ET

There may be no better place to start than in Yankees vs. Angels, a game in which our model projects a high probability of home runs and offense in general as the Yankees look to avoid back-to-back sweeps.

Four players from the Yankees get a probability of 25% or higher to hit a home run today, with our model predicting a bad day for Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz with 3.7 earned runs, one of only two pitchers over 3.0 (more on the other later).

Kochanowicz hasn't given p any home runs through his three starts yet, but MLB's statcast shows him at 1.3 expected home runs, and his high Barrel rate and exit velocity show he's giving up lots of hard hit balls.

The Yankee who's hitting the ball the hardest is Ben Rice, slugging .745 with Hard Hit, Barrel xSLG and Exit Velocity numbers in the 98th percentile or better, particularly dominant vs. RHP.

Rice gets a 25.7% probability to hit his 5th home run of the year, with his price a little shy of fair odds at +290, making him a great candidate for a boosted straight bet.

2.  Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) to hit a home run (+329)

Game: Marlins vs. Braves

Time: 7:15 PM ET

Next, we're going to target that other pitcher projected for at least 3 ER tonight, Chris Paddack of the Marlins.

Paddack has allowed 3 HR through 3 starts, all against righties in a near even split vs. both sides of the plate Unrelated fun fact, all 5 of his walks have come vs. lefties.

Last year, Paddack allowed a whopping 31 home runs and while his numbers show a slightly improved pitching form, he's been a bit lucky, with 3.9 expected HR.

Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Braves has had the opposite luck this year, with his 2.3 discrepancy between 1 HR and 3.3 expected the largest of any batter. He broke the drought over the weekend, and gets a great matchup tonight to heat up.

The Dimers model gives Acuna Jr. an 18.6% probability to hit a home run, highest of any player in the game. With temps in the high 70s-low 80s and light wind blowing out, the data aligns for the former NL MVP to get his second home run.

3. Oneil Cruz (Pirates) to hit a home run (+361)

Game: Nationals vs. Pirates

Time: 6:40 PM ET

We'll round this one out by targeting the worst pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons.

Since becoming a starter in 2023, Jake Irvin has the fifth-highest HR/9 in all of MLB. Since 2024, he has the highest at 1.65. He gave up 38 and 29 home runs over his past two years, favoring lefthanded batters by nearly a 2:1 ratio.

This year, he's allowed 3 HR through 13.3 IP, following his trend with 2 of them to lefthanded batters, and projects for 2.7 earned runs by our model.

Oneil Cruz leads the Pirates order and hits from the left side, with 5 HR this year and as many as 7, with long line drives hitting off the top of the wall in PNC Park, both of which would have been gone in 14 other parks.

He's mashing the ball as usual, with a .997 OPS and he hits the ball harder than almost anyone in MLB.

Cruz gets a 15.7% probability to hit a home run, which won't come with an edge at +361, but it does lead all players in the game.

There's a slight chance of rain, but no postponement looks to be in the cards.

MLB home run parlay at +6663 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +6663 on DraftKings Sportsbook, returning $338.18 off a $5 bet.

Alternatively, you can round robin these three home run hitters at combos of x2 and x3, so you'll make a profit even if one misses.

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