MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Ryan Weiss [4/16/2026]

Dimers' MLB props are live for April 16, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Ryan Weiss, Luis Castillo and Yordan Alvarez.

Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Rangers vs. Athletics and Giants vs. Reds, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.

List of MLB prop bets for Thursday, 4/16

Sourced from 35+ total props today, below are the top ten MLB player props for April 16, ranked by probability.

Ryan Weiss over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 63.9%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Our model has found value on Houston's Ryan Weiss over 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 63.9% gives this play an edge of 4.9% at -120 odds.

Luis Castillo under 5.5 hits allowed (-148)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 63.1%
• Game: Mariners vs. Padres (8:40PM ET)

Luis Castillo’s hits allowed prop shows a 63.1% probability and an 3.4% edge at -148 odds, according to our model.

Luis Castillo over 16.5 outs recorded (-106)

• Edge: 7.8%
• Probability: 59.3%
• Game: Mariners vs. Padres (8:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Luis Castillo over 16.5 outs recorded, with simulations showing a 59.3% probability and a 7.8% edge at -106.

Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases (-125)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 59.1%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 bases, with a 59.1% probability and an edge of 3.6% at -125 odds.

Isaac Paredes over 1.5 bases (+140)

• Edge: 7.7%
• Probability: 49.3%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Isaac Paredes over 1.5 bases for Houston, showing an edge of 7.7% at +140 odds.

Joey Loperfido over 1.5 bases (+144)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 45.7%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Joey Loperfido’s bases prop shows an edge of 4.7% at +144 odds, supported by a 45.7% probability according to our model.

Cam Smith over 1.5 bases (+144)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 45.0%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Cam Smith over 1.5 bases for Houston, with a 45.0% probability and a 4.0% edge at +144 odds.

Taylor Trammell over 0.5 to steal a base (+790)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 16.5%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

The data shows value on Taylor Trammell over 0.5 to steal a base, supported by a 16.5% probability at +790 odds and an edge of 5.3%.

Yainer Diaz over 0.5 to hit a home run (+760)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 15.4%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

A 3.8% edge on the over 0.5 to hit a home run line makes Yainer Diaz a value play in Rockies vs. Astros, supported by a 15.4% probability at +760 odds.

Troy Johnston over 0.5 to steal a base (+950)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 14.3%
• Game: Rockies vs. Astros (8:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Troy Johnston over 0.5 to steal a base here, with a 14.3% probability and 4.8% edge at +950 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, April 16, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 7:56PM ET:

Conclusion

For April 16, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Ryan Weiss, Luis Castillo and Yordan Alvarez. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.