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MLB player props today: Saturday's best props include Steven Matz [4/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB player props today with projections for Saturday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for April 04, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Steven Matz, Mick Abel and Tyler Glasnow.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Braves vs. D-Backs and Astros vs. Athletics, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Saturday, 4/4
Sourced from 70+ total props today, below are the top ten MLB player props for April 4, ranked by probability.
Steven Matz over 1.5 earned runs (-163)
- Edge: 8.6%
- Probability: 70.6%
- Game: Rays vs. Twins (7:10PM ET)
Our model has found value on Tampa Bay's Steven Matz over 1.5 earned runs. A probability of 70.6% gives this play an edge of 8.6% at -163 odds.
Mick Abel over 1.5 earned runs (-158)
- Edge: 7.4%
- Probability: 68.7%
- Game: Rays vs. Twins (7:10PM ET)
Mick Abel’s earned runs prop shows a 68.7% probability and an 7.4% edge at -158 odds, according to our model.
Tyler Glasnow under 6.5 strikeouts (-135)
- Edge: 8.5%
- Probability: 66.0%
- Game: Dodgers vs. Nationals (4:05PM ET)
The data highlights value on Tyler Glasnow under 6.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 66.0% probability and an 8.5% edge at -135.
Tatsuya Imai over 4.5 hits allowed (-122)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 66.0%
- Game: Astros vs. Athletics (4:05PM ET)
Our model finds value on Tatsuya Imai over 4.5 hits allowed, with a 66.0% probability and an edge of 5.2% at -122 odds.
Connelly Early over 1.5 earned runs (-134)
- Edge: 7.4%
- Probability: 64.7%
- Game: Padres vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Connelly Early over 1.5 earned runs for Boston, showing an edge of 7.4% at -134 odds.
Max Meyer under 5.5 strikeouts (-119)
- Edge: 8.2%
- Probability: 64.6%
- Game: Marlins vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET)
Max Meyer’s strikeouts prop shows an edge of 8.2% at -119 odds, supported by a 64.6% probability according to our model.
Kumar Rocker over 1.5 earned runs (-134)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 63.5%
- Game: Reds vs. Rangers (7:05PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Kumar Rocker over 1.5 earned runs for Texas, with a 63.5% probability and a 6.2% edge at -134 odds.
Clay Holmes under 5.5 hits allowed (-148)
- Edge: 3.0%
- Probability: 62.7%
- Game: Mets vs. Giants (9:05PM ET)
The data shows value on Clay Holmes under 5.5 hits allowed, supported by a 62.7% probability at -148 odds and an edge of 3.0%.
Chase Dollander over 3.5 strikeouts (-146)
- Edge: 2.6%
- Probability: 62.0%
- Game: Phillies vs. Rockies (8:10PM ET)
A 2.6% edge on the over 5.5 strikeouts line makes Chase Dollander a value play in Phillies vs. Rockies, supported by a 62.0% probability at -146 odds.
Jesus Luzardo over 1.5 walks allowed (-103)
- Edge: 10.0%
- Probability: 60.7%
- Game: Phillies vs. Rockies (8:10PM ET)
Simulations show value on Jesus Luzardo over 1.5 walks allowed here, with a 60.7% probability and 10.0% edge at -103 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Saturday, April 4, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:58PM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Twins | Steven Matz over 1.5 earned runs | -163 @ DraftKings | 8.6% | 70.6% |
| Rays vs. Twins | Mick Abel over 1.5 earned runs | -158 @ DraftKings | 7.4% | 68.7% |
| Dodgers vs. Nationals | Tyler Glasnow under 6.5 strikeouts | -135 @ DraftKings | 5.2% | 66.0% |
| Astros vs. Athletics | Tatsuya Imai over 4.5 hits allowed | -122 @ DraftKings | 5.2% | 66.0% |
| Padres vs. Red Sox | Connelly Early over 1.5 earned runs | -134 @ DraftKings | 7.4% | 64.7% |
| Marlins vs. Yankees | Max Meyer under 5.5 strikeouts | -119 @ DraftKings | 8.2% | 64.6% |
| Reds vs. Rangers | Kumar Rocker over 1.5 earned runs | -134 @ DraftKings | 6.2% | 63.5% |
| Mets vs. Giants | Clay Holmes under 5.5 hits allowed | -148 @ DraftKings | 3.0% | 62.7% |
| Phillies vs. Rockies | Chase Dollander over 5.5 strikeouts | -146 @ DraftKings | 2.6% | 62.0% |
| Phillies vs. Rockies | Jesus Luzardo over 1.5 walks allowed | -103 @ DraftKings | 10.0% | 60.7% |
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Conclusion
For April 4, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Steven Matz, Mick Abel and Tyler Glasnow. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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