MLB player props today: Monday's best props include Randy Vasquez [4/27/2026]

Randy Vasquez under 4.5 strikeouts (-186)

• Edge: 9.0%
• Probability: 74.1%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

Our model has found value on San Diego's Randy Vasquez under 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 74.1% gives this play an edge of 9.0% at -186 odds.

Steven Matz over 3.5 strikeouts (-162)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 67.9%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET)

Steven Matz’s strikeouts prop shows a 67.9% probability and an 6.1% edge at -162 odds, according to our model.

Matthew Boyd under 5.5 strikeouts (-141)

• Edge: 7.4%
• Probability: 65.9%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Matthew Boyd under 5.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 65.9% probability and a 7.4% edge at -141.

Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts (-118)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 61.6%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts, with a 61.6% probability and an edge of 7.5% at -118 odds.

Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-116)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 59.0%
• Game: Marlins vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases for LA Dodgers, showing an edge of 5.3% at -116 odds.

Randy Vasquez under 16.5 outs recorded (-120)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 58.4%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

Randy Vasquez’s outs recorded prop shows an edge of 3.8% at -120 odds, supported by a 58.4% probability according to our model.

Parker Messick under 4.5 strikeouts (+104)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Parker Messick under 4.5 strikeouts for Cleveland, with a 55.9% probability and a 6.9% edge at +104 odds.

Jack Leiter under 5.5 strikeouts (+106)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 51.8%
• Game: Yankees vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

The data shows value on Jack Leiter under 5.5 strikeouts, supported by a 51.8% probability at +106 odds and an edge of 3.2%.

Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 bases (+118)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 51.2%
• Game: Marlins vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

A 5.3% edge on the over 5.5 bases line makes Teoscar Hernandez a value play in Marlins vs. Dodgers, supported by a 51.2% probability at +118 odds.

Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases (+135)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 51.1%
• Game: Marlins vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases here, with a 51.1% probability and 8.6% edge at +135 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Monday, April 27, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:13AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Cubs vs. Padres	Randy Vasquez under 4.5 strikeouts	-186 @ FanDuel	9.0%	74.1%
Rays vs. Guardians	Steven Matz over 3.5 strikeouts	-162 @ DraftKings	6.1%	67.9%
Cubs vs. Padres	Matthew Boyd under 5.5 strikeouts	-141 @ DraftKings	7.5%	61.6%
Cardinals vs. Pirates	Dustin May over 4.5 strikeouts	-118 @ FanDuel	7.5%	61.6%
Marlins vs. Dodgers	Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases	-116 @ DraftKings	5.3%	59.0%
Cubs vs. Padres	Randy Vasquez under 16.5 outs recorded	-120 @ DraftKings	3.8%	58.4%
Rays vs. Guardians	Parker Messick under 4.5 strikeouts	+104 @ FanDuel	6.9%	55.9%
Yankees vs. Rangers	Jack Leiter under 5.5 strikeouts	+106 @ DraftKings	3.2%	51.8%
Marlins vs. Dodgers	Teoscar Hernandez over 5.5 bases	+118 @ DraftKings	5.3%	51.2%
Marlins vs. Dodgers	Kyle Tucker over 1.5 bases	+135 @ DraftKings	8.6%	51.1%

Conclusion

For April 27, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Randy Vasquez, Steven Matz and Matthew Boyd. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.