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Home run predictions for Thursday include Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers [4/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, April 30, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 30, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +620.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 23.1% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 21.6% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 21.2% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 20.4% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 20.0% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 18.8% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 18.4% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 18.3% |
| Mark Vientos (Mets) | 18.2% |
| JJ Bleday (Reds) | 17.6% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.1% chance to go yard, followed by Shea Langeliers (21.6%) and Juan Soto (21.2%).
Brent Rooker and Pete Alonso are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep. appears in our home run predictions on Thursday, April 30, 2026.
Thursday's home run picks [4/30/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.
Mark Vientos (Mets) to hit a home run
- Probability: 17.6%
- Odds: +620
- Edge: 3.7%
- Game: Nationals vs. Mets (1:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Miles Mikolas
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Mark Vientos rates as a value play at +620 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.7% edge.
Set to face Miles Mikolas in tonight's Nationals-Mets matchup, the data supports Vientos as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 30, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Juan Soto projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Mark Vientos who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.7% edge at +620 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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