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Read Article Home run predictions for Opening Day include Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker [3/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, March 26, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Opening Day's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for March 26, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1050.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.8% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.2% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 17.5% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 17.1% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 17.1% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 16.4% |
| Max Muncy (Dodgers) | 16.4% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 16.3% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 16.2% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 16.2% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.8% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (19.2%) and Cal Raleigh (17.5%).
Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [3/26/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.
Matt Shaw (Cubs) to hit a home run
- Probability: 11.2%
- Odds: +1050
- Edge: 2.5%
- Game: Nationals vs. Cubs (2:20 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Cade Cavalli
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Matt Shaw rates as a value play at +1050 with BetMGM, showing a 2.5% edge.
Set to face Cade Cavalli in tonight's Nationals-Cubs matchup, the data supports Shaw as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 19 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
MLB schedule for Opening Day [Thursday, March 26, 2026]
- Pirates vs. Mets (1:15PM ET, Thursday)
- White Sox vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Nationals vs. Cubs (2:20PM ET, Thursday)
- Twins vs. Orioles (3:05PM ET, Thursday)
- Angels vs. Astros (4:10PM ET, Thursday)
- Rangers vs. Phillies (4:15PM ET, Thursday)
Conclusion
For March 26, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Matt Shaw who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.5% edge at +1050 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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