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Read Article Home run predictions for Saturday include Nick Kurtz, Aaron Judge [5/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, May 2, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run bets today.
Home run predictions for May 2, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +790.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 24.7% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.7% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 22.6% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 21.7% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 21.2% |
| Ronald Acuna (Braves) | 20.0% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 19.9% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 19.6% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 19.3% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 19.3% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.7% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (23.7%) and Shea Langeliers (22.6%).
Brent Rooker and Shohei Ohtani are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [5/2/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro identifies today’s top home run prop.
Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 18.2%
- Odds: +790
- Edge: 7.0%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Twins (2:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Connor Prielipp
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Toronto slugger Daulton Varsho rates as a value play at +790 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 7.0% edge.
Set to face Connor Prielipp in tonight's Blue Jays-Twins matchup, the data supports Varsho as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 2, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Aaron Judge and Shea Langeliers projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Daulton Varsho who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 7.0% edge at +790 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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