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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Monday has +1000 odds [4/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, April 13, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for April 13, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1000.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 25.1% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 23.3% |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | 22.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.0% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 19.6% |
| Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) | 18.4% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.2% |
| Jake Burger (Rangers) | 18.2% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 17.9% |
| Corey Seager (Rangers) | 17.6% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.1% chance to go yard, followed by Shohei Ohtani (23.3%) and Giancarlo Stanton (22.9%).
Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [4/13/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro identifies today’s top home run prop.
Luke Raley (Mariners) to hit a home run
- Probability: 11.7%
- Odds: +1000
- Edge: 2.6%
- Game: Astros vs. Mariners (4:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Mike Burrows
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Seattle slugger Luke Raley rates as a value play at +1000 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 2.6% edge.
Set to face Mike Burrows in tonight's Astros-Mariners matchup, the data supports Raley as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 13, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Luke Raley who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.6% edge at +1000 odds.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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