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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +700 pick for Monday [4/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, April 6, 2026, feature Yordan Alvarez as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 6, 2026
See which hitters join Alvarez on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +700.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 21.8% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 19.2% |
| Christian Walker (Astros) | 18.7% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 18.2% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 17.5% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 16.3% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 16.0% |
| Yainer Diaz (Astros) | 15.7% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 15.3% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 15.3% |
Our analysis shows Alvarez leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.8% chance to go yard, followed by Shohei Ohtani (19.2%) and Christian Walker (18.7%).
Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [4/6/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven variables like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro identifies today’s top home run prop.
Yainer Diaz (Astros) to hit a home run
- Probability: 15.7%
- Odds: +700
- Edge: 3.2%
- Game: Astros vs. Rockies (8:40 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Ryan Feltner
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Yainer Diaz rates as a value play at +700 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.2% edge.
Set to face Ryan Feltner in tonight's Astros-Rockies matchup, the data supports Diaz as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 1 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
MLB schedule for today [Monday, April 6, 2026]
- Astros vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Monday)
Conclusion
For April 6, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani and Christian Walker projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Yainer Diaz who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.2% edge at +700 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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