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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +550 pick for Monday [3/30/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Monday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Monday, March 30, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Monday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for March 30, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +550.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 24.2% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 20.3% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.0% |
| Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) | 19.6% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 19.2% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 18.8% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 18.5% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 18.4% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.1% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 18.1% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.2% chance to go deep, followed by Vladimir Guerrero (20.3%) and Kyle Schwarber (20.0%).
Daulton Varsho and Yordan Alvarez are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Monday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Monday's home run picks [3/30/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, highlights today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 18%
- Odds: +550
- Edge: 2.6%
- Game: Rockies vs. Blue Jays (7:07 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Toronto slugger Kazuma Okamoto rates as a value play at +550 with BetMGM, showing a 2.6% edge.
Against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, the data supports Okamoto as one of Monday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 1 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
MLB schedule for today [Monday, March 30, 2026]
- Rockies vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Monday)
Conclusion
For March 30, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kazuma Okamoto who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.6% edge at +550 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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