MLB picks today: Sunday's MLB best bets include Astros vs. Reds play [5/10/2026]

Astros vs. Reds over 9 runs (+100)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Reds (1:40PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on over 9 runs in Astros vs. Reds at +100 odds. A 54.3% probability produces an edge of 4.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Braves vs. Dodgers over 8.5 runs (-110)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Dodgers (4:10PM ET, Sunday)

Braves vs. Dodgers over 8.5 runs carries a 4.2% edge and a probability of 56.5% at -110 odds, according to our model.

Twins vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs (-110)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 56.2%
• Matchup: Twins vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)

Twins vs. Guardians over 7.5 runs at -110 odds shows a 3.8% edge, supported by a 56.2% probability in simulations.

Rockies vs. Phillies over 8.5 runs (-105)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 54.5%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Phillies (1:35PM ET, Sunday)

A 3.3% edge and 54.5% probability make Rockies vs. Phillies over 8.5 runs at a value play in the Rockies vs. Phillies matchup, per our model.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks over 8.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Diamondbacks (4:10PM ET, Sunday)

Mets vs. Diamondbacks over 8.5 runs at -115 odds presents a 3.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56.7%.

Athletics vs. Orioles over 10 runs (+100)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 53%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET, Sunday)

Our model finds value on over 10 runs in Athletics vs. Orioles at +100 odds, supported by an edge of 3.0%.

Cubs vs. Rangers over 8 runs (-108)

• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Matchup: Cubs vs. Rangers (2:35PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has uncovered value on Cubs vs. Rangers over 8 runs at -108 odds. A 54.7% probability produces a 2.8% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Rays vs. Red Sox over 8 runs (-120)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 57.1%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Red Sox (1:35PM ET, Sunday)

A 2.5% edge on a 57.1% probability makes over 8 runs at -120 odds a solid value play in today's Rays vs. Red Sox matchup.

Yankees vs. Brewers over 8 runs (-110)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Matchup: Yankees vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET, Sunday)

Our model projects value on over 8 runs at -110 odds. A 54.8% probability produces a 2.5% edge, making the over the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

Tigers vs. Royals over 8 runs (-118)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Matchup: Tigers vs. Royals (7:20PM ET, Sunday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Tigers vs. Royals over 8 runs at -118 odds shows a 56.3% probability and a 2.2% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Sunday, 5/10/2026

As of 4:03AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Astros vs. Reds	Over 9 Runs	+100 @ BetMGM	4.3%	54.3%
Braves vs. Dodgers	Over 8.5 Runs	-110 @ BetMGM	4.2%	56.5%
Twins vs. Guardians	Over 7.5 Runs	-110 @ DraftKings	3.8%	56.2%
Rockies vs. Phillies	Over 8.5 Runs	-105 @ FanDuel	3.3%	54.5%
Mets vs. Diamondbacks	Over 8.5 Runs	-115 @ BetMGM	3.2%	56.7%
Athletics vs. Orioles	Over 10 Runs	+100 @ BetMGM	3.0%	53%
Cubs vs. Rangers	Over 8 Runs	-108 @ DraftKings	2.8%	54.7%
Rays vs. Red Sox	Over 8 Runs	-120 @ BetMGM	2.5%	57.1%
Yankees vs. Brewers	Over 8 Runs	-110 @ BetMGM	2.5%	54.8%
Tigers vs. Royals	Over 8 Runs	-118 @ BetMGM	2.2%	56.3%

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/10/2026]

• Nationals vs. Marlins (12:15PM ET, Sunday)
• Rockies vs. Phillies (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Athletics vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Rays vs. Red Sox (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Angels vs. Blue Jays (1:37PM ET, Sunday)
• Twins vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Astros vs. Reds (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Yankees vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Mariners vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Cubs vs. Rangers (2:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Pirates vs. Giants (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Braves vs. Dodgers (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Cardinals vs. Padres (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Mets vs. D-Backs (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Tigers vs. Royals (7:20PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 10, 2026, featuring plays such as over 9 runs in the Astros vs. Reds matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Braves vs. Dodgers matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.