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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks prediction: Dallas favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [2/27/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Friday.
The Dallas Mavericks will square off with the Memphis Grizzlies in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Friday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Mavericks as the most likely winner of the Grizzlies vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams and Max Christie, while the Grizzlies will be led by GG Jackson, Jaylen Wells and Javon Small.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Grizzlies vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Grizzlies and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mavericks a 66% chance of beating the Grizzlies. Our predicted final score has the Mavericks winning 121-116.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Grizzlies and Mavericks each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 241.5 points has a 57% chance of staying under.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Grizzlies | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (-102) | -4.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +164 | -190 |
| Total | o241.5 (-105) | u241.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies +4.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | -190 |
| Total | Under 241.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Under 241.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks player props
Betting on Memphis vs. Dallas NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
GG Jackson is expected to lead the Grizzlies with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists, while Naji Marshall is projected to have 22 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Grizzlies prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Grizzlies are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GG Jackson | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 |
| Jaylen Wells | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Javon Small | 13 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 32 |
| Scotty Pippen | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 30 |
| O. Prosper | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | 22 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 42 |
| B. Williams | 20 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 38 |
| Max Christie | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Khris Middleton | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 32 |
| Daniel Gafford | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 29 |
Grizzlies vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Mavericks and Grizzlies at American Airlines Center is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Friday, February 27, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mavericks, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Grizzlies on Friday, with Naji Marshall projected for a game-high 42 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Grizzlies vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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