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Read Article Marco Trungelliti vs. Daniel Merida prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Trungelliti vs Merida predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Marco Trungelliti will take on Daniel Merida in the round of 128 at the ATP Madrid event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Daniel Merida as the most likely winner of the Trungelliti vs. Merida match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Trungelliti vs. Merida prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Trungelliti-Merida men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Merida a 52% chance of defeating Trungelliti at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Merida has a 52% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Trungelliti (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Marco Trungelliti vs. Daniel Merida odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Trungelliti | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +118 | -125 |
| First Set | +110 | -139 |
| Game Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-120) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-118) | u22.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Trungelliti vs. Merida picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Trungelliti | +118 |
| First Set | Merida | -112 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Trungelliti vs. Merida updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 12:00 PM ET.
- Who: Marco Trungelliti vs. Daniel Merida
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Daniel Merida, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat Marco Trungelliti at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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