Manchester City vs. Aston Villa prediction, odds, Premier League picks [5/24/2026]

Premier League final day action goes down on Sunday at 11:00 AM ET as Aston Villa takes on Manchester City at Etihad Stadium.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced Premier League model projects Manchester City as the most likely winner of the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa prediction: Who will win?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Premier League match between Manchester City and Aston Villa, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 72.2% chance of Manchester City winning, an 11.5% chance for Aston Villa, and a 16.3% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 66% chance of going over, according to our model.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa odds

We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Manchester City	Aston Villa	Draw
-350	+850	+550

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-333	+250

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Aston Villa	+850
Total Goals	Under 2.5	+250

According to our best Premier League bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Manchester City win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
MCI 2-0 AVL	10.4%
MCI 2-1 AVL	9.4%
MCI 3-0 AVL	8.7%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.6% chance of both Manchester City and Aston Villa finding the net and a 45.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's Premier League action between Manchester City and Aston Villa at Etihad Stadium is scheduled to start in the United States at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
• Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
• Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Venue: Etihad Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Manchester City has a 72.2% win probability on Sunday, Aston Villa has an 11.5% win probability, and there is a 16.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.