Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Manchester City vs. Aston Villa Premier League match on May 24, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Aston Villa
2
1
Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
Etihad Stadium
Manchester CityMNC
Score Summary
Aston VillaVIL
A. Semenyo (23')
Soccer ball icon
O. Watkins (47')
Soccer ball icon
O. Watkins (61')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Manchester City
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Aston Villa
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  2. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: J. McGinn replaces R. Barkley
  3. 82'
    Yellow Card
    R. Lewis (Manchester City) cautioned
  4. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: J. Doku replaces T. Reijnders
  5. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: J. Gvardiol replaces J. Stones
  6. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: R. Ait-Nouri replaces N. Ake
  7. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: Y. Tielemans replaces Douglas Luiz
  8. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: A. Onana replaces L. Bogarde
  9. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: P. Torres replaces V. Lindelof
  10. 61'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by O. Watkins, assisted by R. Barkley
    2-1
  11. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: M. Kovacic replaces B. Silva
  12. 58'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: R. Cherki replaces A. Semenyo
  13. 47'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Aston Villa by O. Watkins
    1-1
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Aston Villa: M. Cash replaces A. Garcia
  15. 23'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Manchester City by A. Semenyo
    0-1

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
  • Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
  • Time: 11:00 AM ET
  • Venue: Etihad Stadium

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Manchester City -230, Aston Villa +650, draw +425
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-250/+200)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Manchester City: 70.3%
  • Aston Villa: 12.4%
  • Draw: 17.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa (10.6%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Manchester City vs. Aston Villa? Prediction & correct score

Manchester City is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 70.3%.

The most likely correct score is Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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