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Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction, odds, Premier League picks [4/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Manchester City vs Arsenal predictions for Premier League Sunday.
Manchester City will face Arsenal in Premier League action at Etihad Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 11:30 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Premier League model projects Manchester City as the most likely winner of the Manchester City vs. Arsenal game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model suggests a 42.2% chance of Manchester City winning, a 32.0% chance for Arsenal, and a 25.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal odds
We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Manchester City | Arsenal | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -115 | +333 | +270 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +100 | -110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal | +333 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | +100 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Arsenal to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MCI 1-1 ARS | 12.3% |
| MCI 1-0 ARS | 10.1% |
| MCI 2-1 ARS | 8.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.8% chance of both sides finding the net and a 46.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Premier League matchup between Manchester City and Arsenal at Etihad Stadium is scheduled to start in the USA at 11:30 AM ET.
- Who: Manchester City vs. Arsenal
- Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
- Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
- Venue: Etihad Stadium
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Manchester City has a 42.2% win probability on Sunday, Arsenal has a 32.0% win probability, and there is a 25.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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