Mackenzie McDonald vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open

Mackenzie McDonald and Alex de Minaur will lock horns in the first round of the 2026 Australian Open on Sunday.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Alex de Minaur as the most likely winner of the McDonald vs. de Minaur match.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

McDonald vs. de Minaur prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's McDonald-de Minaur men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives de Minaur a 91% chance of beating McDonald in the 2026 Australian Open.

Additionally, de Minaur has an 82% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the bookmakers have got it right with the -8.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 31.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Mackenzie McDonald vs. Alex de Minaur odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

McDonald vs. de Minaur picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: