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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Musetti vs Mpetshi Perricard predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Lorenzo Musetti and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will meet in the round of 64 of the ATP Italian Open event on Friday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Lorenzo Musetti as the most likely winner of the Musetti vs. Mpetshi Perricard match.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Musetti vs. Mpetshi Perricard prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Musetti-Mpetshi Perricard men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives Musetti an 85% chance of beating Mpetshi Perricard at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Musetti has an 80% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Musetti (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Musetti | Mpetshi Perricard |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -800 | +610 |
| First Set | -500 | +350 |
| Game Spread | -4.5 (-110) | +4.5 (-120) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-112) | u21.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Musetti vs. Mpetshi Perricard picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mpetshi Perricard | +610 |
| First Set | Mpetshi Perricard | -118 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Musetti vs. Mpetshi Perricard updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Lorenzo Musetti and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is scheduled to commence on Friday at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
- Approx. Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Lorenzo Musetti, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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