Karolina Pliskova vs. Sloane Stephens prediction, odds, picks for Australian Open 2026

Karolina Pliskova will face Sloane Stephens in the first round of the Australian Open Women's Singles 2026 on Monday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Sloane Stephens as the most likely winner of the Pliskova vs. Stephens match.

This article offers further insights into Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Pliskova vs. Stephens prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Pliskova-Stephens women's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Stephens a 61% chance of beating Pliskova in the Australian Open 2026.

Additionally, Stephens has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Pliskova (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 20.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Karolina Pliskova vs. Sloane Stephens odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pliskova vs. Stephens picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: