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Karolina Pliskova vs. Madison Keys prediction, odds, picks for Australian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pliskova vs Keys predictions for Australian Open 2026.
Karolina Pliskova will take on Madison Keys in the third round of the Australian Open Women's Singles 2026 on Friday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Madison Keys as the most likely winner of the Pliskova vs. Keys match.
This article offers further insights into Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pliskova vs. Keys prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Pliskova-Keys women's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Keys an 82% chance of defeating Pliskova in the Australian Open 2026.
Additionally, Keys has a 77% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Keys (-5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 19.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting**, according to our model.
Karolina Pliskova vs. Madison Keys odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pliskova | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +500 | -629 |
| First Set | +300 | -400 |
| Game Spread | +5.5 (-120) | -5.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o19.5 (-120) | u19.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pliskova vs. Keys picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pliskova | +500 |
| First Set | Keys | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is *Karolina Pliskova to win.
Pliskova vs. Keys updates and essential details
The Australian Open 2026 match between Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys is scheduled to begin on Friday at 6:30 PM ET.
- Who: Karolina Pliskova vs. Madison Keys
- Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
- Approx. Time: 6:30 PM ET/3:30PM PT
- Tournament: Australian Open Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Third round
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Madison Keys, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat Karolina Pliskova at the Australian Open 2026.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pliskova vs. Keys insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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