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Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys prediction, odds, picks for Australian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pegula vs Keys predictions for Australian Open 2026.
Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys will meet in the fourth round of the Australian Open 2026 on Sunday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model projects Jessica Pegula as the most likely winner of the Pegula vs. Keys match.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Pegula vs. Keys prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Pegula-Keys women's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Pegula a 60% chance of winning against Keys in the Australian Open 2026.
Additionally, Pegula has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Pegula (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting**, according to our model.
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -160 | +146 |
| First Set | -152 | +120 |
| Game Spread | -2.5 (-122) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-106) | u22.5 (-126) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pegula vs. Keys picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Keys | +146 |
| First Set | Keys | -126 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is *Madison Keys to win.
Pegula vs. Keys updates and essential details
The Australian Open 2026 match between Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys
- Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Tournament: Australian Open Women's Singles 2026
- Round: Fourth round
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Jessica Pegula, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Madison Keys at the Australian Open 2026.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pegula vs. Keys insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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