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Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Get Sinner vs Popyrin predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Jannik Sinner will take on Alexei Popyrin in the round of 32 at the ATP Rome event on Monday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Jannik Sinner as the most likely winner of the Sinner vs. Popyrin match.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.
Sinner vs. Popyrin prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's Sinner-Popyrin men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Sinner a 96% chance of defeating Popyrin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Sinner has a 91% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Popyrin (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 18.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sinner | Popyrin |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -5000 | +2000 |
| First Set | -1667 | +900 |
| Game Spread | -6.5 (+102) | +6.5 (-134) |
| Total Games | o18.5 (-106) | u18.5 (-128) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sinner vs. Popyrin picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Popyrin | +2000 |
| First Set | Popyrin | -106 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexei Popyrin to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Sinner vs. Popyrin updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Jannik Sinner and Alexei Popyrin is scheduled to start on Monday at 9:45 AM ET.
- Who: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:45 AM ET/6:45AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 32
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Jannik Sinner, with a 96% win probability, will likely beat Alexei Popyrin at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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