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Hubert Hurkacz vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Hurkacz vs Musetti predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Hubert Hurkacz and Lorenzo Musetti will lock horns in the round of 64 of the ATP Madrid Open event on Friday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Lorenzo Musetti as the most likely winner of the Hurkacz vs. Musetti match.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
Hurkacz vs. Musetti prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's Hurkacz-Musetti men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Musetti a 59% chance of defeating Hurkacz at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Musetti has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Musetti (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Lorenzo Musetti odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hurkacz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +162 | -175 |
| First Set | +137 | -175 |
| Game Spread | +1.5 (+100) | -1.5 (-155) |
| Total Games | o23.5 (-110) | u23.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hurkacz vs. Musetti picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hurkacz | +162 |
| First Set | Musetti | -120 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Hubert Hurkacz to win.
Although Hurkacz is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hurkacz vs. Musetti updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Hubert Hurkacz and Lorenzo Musetti is scheduled to commence on Friday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
- Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Lorenzo Musetti, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat Hubert Hurkacz at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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