Home Run Picks: Two hitters to hit a HR today, Thursday, April 16

Just three night games grace the MLB betting slate on Thursday, April 16, as we dive into the best MLB player props and home run predictions from the Dimers model. Utilizing our retooled MLB props model for 2026, we're looking for the best hitters to back for a home run today.

All season long, you'll find these player prop insights in the Dimers App, the ultimate companion tool for Dimers Pro users. If you don't have Dimers Pro, you can sign up in the App today and get a three-day free trial.

MLB home run parlay bet today, Thursday, April 16

Home runs have been heating up with the weather lately, but it's still important to isolate the ideal matchups and conditions.

That's why utilizing the various Dimers Pro MLB insights to identify the players with the best chance to go yard is so crucial.

Combining our hitter and pitcher projections with our MLB player prop tool and even our early-season MLB trends is an ideal way to narrow down a full slate of players to a handful of top targets who can take advantage of their matchup.

1. Yordan Alvarez (Astros) to hit a home run (+300)

Game: Rockies vs. Astros

Time: 8:10 PM ET

Don't overthink Yordan Alvarez tonight.

He sits atop MLB leaderboards across the board, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in most Statcast categories, and has already launched 7 home runs on the season.

Colorado is going with opener Juan Mejia, whose bloated ERA is a product of limited innings rather than a lack of effectiveness and he's only allowed runs in 2 of 7 appearances and has actually blanked the top of Houston's order twice. But he won't pitch much, and then it's rotating cast of Rockies relievers who have been serviceable at best this year.

At +300 odds with a 21.7% probability, our highest across the night games, Alvarez is lined up for another big night and not too far off from Dimers' fair odds of +360.

2.  Luke Raley (Mariners) to hit a home run (+490)

Game: Mariners vs. Padres

Time: 8:40PM ET

Luke Raley has already made his case this season, and tonight's matchup sets him up perfectly again.

The Mariners face Walker Buehler, who is a shell of his former self after posting a career-high 22 home runs allowed, a 5.45 ERA, and a 1.56 WHIP last season.

Raley has been deployed almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, and he has absolutely feasted on that matchup, slashing .330 with a 1.036 OPS and 4 home runs against righties.

He's been crushing the ball to start the year and though his 11.3% model probability shows he's overpriced, he's a dangerous hitter in an exploitable spot.

MLB home run parlay at +2260 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +2260 on FanDuel Sportsbook, returning $118 off a $5 bet, where you can also use a 30% profit boost to make these odds even longer.

Dimers' MLB betting resources for the 2026 season

• MLB Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every MLB game, every day.
• MLB Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
• World Series Odds: Who will win it all?
• Best MLB Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• MLB Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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