Home Run Picks: Two hitters to hit a HR today, Thursday, April 16

1. Yordan Alvarez (Astros) to hit a home run (+300)

Game: Rockies vs. Astros

Time: 8:10 PM ET

Don't overthink Yordan Alvarez tonight.

He sits atop MLB leaderboards across the board, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in most Statcast categories, and has already launched 7 home runs on the season.

Colorado is going with opener Juan Mejia, whose bloated ERA is a product of limited innings rather than a lack of effectiveness and he's only allowed runs in 2 of 7 appearances and has actually blanked the top of Houston's order twice. But he won't pitch much, and then it's rotating cast of Rockies relievers who have been serviceable at best this year.

At +300 odds with a 21.7% probability, our highest across the night games, Alvarez is lined up for another big night and not too far off from Dimers' fair odds of +360.

2.  Luke Raley (Mariners) to hit a home run (+490)

Game: Mariners vs. Padres

Time: 8:40PM ET

Luke Raley has already made his case this season, and tonight's matchup sets him up perfectly again.

The Mariners face Walker Buehler, who is a shell of his former self after posting a career-high 22 home runs allowed, a 5.45 ERA, and a 1.56 WHIP last season.

Raley has been deployed almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, and he has absolutely feasted on that matchup, slashing .330 with a 1.036 OPS and 4 home runs against righties.

He's been crushing the ball to start the year and though his 11.3% model probability shows he's overpriced, he's a dangerous hitter in an exploitable spot.

MLB home run parlay at +2260 odds

For a bigger payout at a higher risk, you can bet these home run props as a parlay at total odds of +2260 on FanDuel Sportsbook, returning $118 off a $5 bet, where you can also use a 30% profit boost to make these odds even longer.

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