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Panthers vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [2/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Florida Panthers in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Panthers vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Panthers vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Panthers and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 61% chance of beating the Panthers.
According to our model, the Panthers (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 53% chance of going over.
Panthers vs. Lightning odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Panthers | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+132) |
| Moneyline | +160 | -188 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Panthers vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Panthers +1.5 | -155 |
| Moneyline | Panthers | +160 |
| Total | Over 6 | -115 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Panthers to win.
Panthers vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Panthers vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Panthers vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Kucherov a 47.4% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Florida Panthers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart | 36.3% |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 29.2% |
| Sam Bennett | 28.7% |
| Brad Marchand | 24.1% |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 23.7% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 47.4% |
| Jake Guentzel | 45.6% |
| Brandon Hagel | 37.5% |
| Darren Raddysh | 27.9% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 24.9% |
First goal scorer predictions
Florida Panthers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart | 7.9% |
| Sam Bennett | 5.8% |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 5.5% |
| Carter Verhaeghe | 4.4% |
| Brad Marchand | 4.4% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 9.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 9.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.3% |
| Darren Raddysh | 5.2% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 4.6% |
Panthers vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Lightning and Panthers at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Panthers on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Panthers vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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