Panthers vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Panthers vs. Lightning NHL game on February 5, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Panthers
1
6
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Panthers
0 0 1 1
Lightning
2 2 2 6
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Panthers
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Panthers
0 0 1 1
Lightning
2 2 2 6
P3 16:06 Power play - Sam Bennett shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
P3 15:53 Shot on goal by Donovan Sebrango saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 15:41 Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 15:20 Shot missed by Jesper Boqvist
P3 14:58 Shot on goal by Mackie Samoskevich saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:59 Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
P3 09:17 Power play - Sandis Vilmanis shot blocked by teammate
P3 07:56 Power play - Uvis Balinskis shot blocked by teammate
P3 07:01 Power play - Shot missed by Eetu Luostarinen
P3 06:49 Power play - Shot on goal by Uvis Balinskis saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 06:09 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Daniil Tarasov
P3 05:58 Power play - Shot missed by Dominic James
P3 05:41 Power play - Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Daniil Tarasov
P3 05:26 Power play - Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 04:38 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jeff Petry saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 03:24 Shot on goal by Gustav Forsling saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 02:50 Jesper Boqvist shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 00:35 Sam Reinhart shot blocked by J.J. Moser
P2 19:21 Shot on goal by Jeff Petry saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 18:34 Shot on goal by Carter Verhaeghe saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:27
    Giveaway by Uvis Balinskis in neutral zone
  3. P3 18:33
    Luke Kunin won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  4. P3 18:25
    Giveaway by Jesper Boqvist in offensive zone
  5. P3 16:45
    Shorthanded - Gage Goncalves credited with hit on Sam Bennett in defensive zone
  6. P3 16:06
    SHOT
    Power play - Sam Bennett shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  7. P3 16:05
    Power play - Anton Lundell won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  8. P3 16:05
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  9. P3 15:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Donovan Sebrango saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  10. P3 15:41
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand
    1-6
  11. P3 15:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jesper Boqvist
  12. P3 15:05
    Giveaway by Dominic James in defensive zone
  13. P3 14:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mackie Samoskevich saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  14. P3 14:10
    Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh in neutral zone
  15. P3 13:16
    Giveaway by Sandis Vilmanis in offensive zone
  16. P3 12:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
  17. P3 11:59
    Power play - Giveaway by Ryan McDonagh in defensive zone
  18. P3 11:52
    Shorthanded - Luke Kunin won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  19. P3 11:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  20. P3 09:50
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Anton Lundell in neutral zone
  21. P3 09:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Sandis Vilmanis shot blocked by teammate
  22. P3 07:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Uvis Balinskis shot blocked by teammate
  23. P3 07:08
    Power play - Giveaway by Mackie Samoskevich in offensive zone
  24. P3 07:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Eetu Luostarinen
  25. P3 06:49
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Uvis Balinskis saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  26. P3 06:33
    Power play - Anton Lundell won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  27. P3 06:33
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  28. P3 06:09
    Panthers replaced goalie. (Sergei Bobrovsky)
  29. P3 06:09
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Daniil Tarasov
  30. P3 05:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Dominic James
  31. P3 05:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Daniil Tarasov
  32. P3 05:29
    Stoppage
  33. P3 05:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  34. P3 05:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  35. P3 04:38
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jeff Petry saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  36. P3 04:06
    Power play - Jack Finley won faceoff against Luke Kunin in offensive zone
  37. P3 04:06
    Penalty to Carter Verhaeghe 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Jake Guentzel)
  38. P3 04:06
    Penalty to Matthew Tkachuk 2 minutes for Misconduct
  39. P3 04:06
    Penalty to Donovan Sebrango 2 minutes for Misconduct
  40. P3 04:06
    Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Misconduct
  41. P3 04:06
    Penalty to J.J. Moser 2 minutes for Misconduct
  42. P3 04:06
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
  43. P3 03:25
    Anton Lundell won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  44. P3 03:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gustav Forsling saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  45. P3 02:50
    SHOT
    Jesper Boqvist shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  46. P3 02:40
    Giveaway by Ryan McDonagh in defensive zone
  47. P3 01:31
    Yanni Gourde credited with hit on Sam Bennett in offensive zone
  48. P3 01:10
    Giveaway by Sam Bennett in offensive zone
  49. P3 00:56
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  50. P3 00:35
    SHOT
    Sam Reinhart shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  51. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  52. P2 19:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jeff Petry saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  53. P2 18:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Carter Verhaeghe saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  54. P2 18:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Daniil Tarasov
  55. P2 18:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Daniil Tarasov
  56. P2 17:50
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Erik Cernak assisted by Ryan McDonagh and Dominic James
    0-4
  57. P2 17:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Cernak
  58. P2 17:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Daniil Tarasov
  59. P2 17:11
    Giveaway by Dominic James in neutral zone
  60. P2 16:53
    Dominic James won faceoff against Cole Schwindt in offensive zone
  61. P2 16:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Daniil Tarasov
  62. P2 16:06
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Cole Schwindt in defensive zone
  63. P2 16:06
    Penalty to J.J. Moser 2 minutes for Misconduct
  64. P2 16:03
    SHOT
    Power play - Mackie Samoskevich shot blocked by teammate
  65. P2 14:20
    Panthers won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  66. P2 13:44
    Stoppage - Icing
  67. P2 12:45
    Shorthanded - Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  68. P2 12:45
    Stoppage - Offside
  69. P2 11:37
    Shorthanded - Luke Kunin won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  70. P2 11:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  71. P2 10:48
    Shorthanded - Luke Kunin won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  72. P2 10:48
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  73. P2 09:36
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  74. P2 09:27
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  75. P2 09:22
    Stoppage - Offside
  76. P2 08:55
    SHOT
    Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Jack Finley
  77. P2 08:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  78. P2 08:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Daniil Tarasov
  79. P2 07:53
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  80. P2 07:16
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Niko Mikkola
  81. P2 06:33
    Anton Lundell won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  82. P2 06:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mackie Samoskevich saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  83. P2 06:09
    Panthers won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  84. P2 05:41
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Sam Bennett in neutral zone
  85. P2 05:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Uvis Balinskis saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  86. P2 04:50
    Giveaway by Eetu Luostarinen in neutral zone
  87. P2 04:23
    Panthers won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  88. P2 04:10
    SHOT
    Donovan Sebrango shot blocked by Scott Sabourin
  89. P2 03:57
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Cole Schwindt in neutral zone
  90. P2 03:30
    SHOT
    Uvis Balinskis shot blocked by Yanni Gourde
  91. P2 03:16
    Luke Kunin won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  92. P2 03:16
    Stoppage - Icing
  93. P2 02:53
    Stoppage - Icing
  94. P2 02:13
    Takeaway by Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
  95. P2 02:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Uvis Balinskis saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  96. P2 01:54
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  97. P2 01:14
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Cole Schwindt in neutral zone
  98. P2 01:14
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Darren Raddysh and Nikita Kucherov
    0-3
  99. P2 01:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Daniil Tarasov
  100. P2 00:00
    Power play - Jack Finley won faceoff against Sam Bennett in neutral zone
  101. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  102. P1 19:56
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Anton Lundell in defensive zone
  103. P1 19:31
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Anton Lundell in defensive zone
  104. P1 19:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Tkachuk
  105. P1 19:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  106. P1 18:58
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  107. P1 18:58
    Penalty to Mackie Samoskevich 2 minutes for Misconduct
  108. P1 18:58
    Penalty to Jesper Boqvist 2 minutes for Misconduct
  109. P1 18:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  110. P1 18:43
    Giveaway by Niko Mikkola in neutral zone
  111. P1 18:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by A.J. Greer
  112. P1 17:16
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Sam Bennett
  113. P1 16:06
    Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Anton Lundell in defensive zone
  114. P1 16:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Sam Bennett saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  115. P1 15:50
    Power play - Anton Lundell won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  116. P1 15:14
    Shorthanded - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Anton Lundell in defensive zone
  117. P1 15:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anton Lundell
  118. P1 14:08
    Anton Lundell won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  119. P1 14:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Daniil Tarasov
  120. P1 14:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Daniil Tarasov
  121. P1 13:31
    Panthers won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
  122. P1 13:31
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  123. P1 11:25
    Scott Sabourin credited with hit on Jeff Petry in offensive zone
  124. P1 10:51
    Takeaway by Nikita Kucherov in defensive zone
  125. P1 10:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  126. P1 10:34
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  127. P1 10:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  128. P1 10:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gustav Forsling saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  129. P1 08:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sandis Vilmanis saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  130. P1 08:30
    SHOT
    Niko Mikkola shot blocked by Scott Sabourin
  131. P1 08:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jeff Petry saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  132. P1 07:21
    Anton Lundell won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  133. P1 07:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jeff Petry saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  134. P1 07:17
    Panthers won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  135. P1 07:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Uvis Balinskis saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  136. P1 06:41
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  137. P1 06:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Daniil Tarasov
  138. P1 04:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Niko Mikkola saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  139. P1 04:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Niko Mikkola
  140. P1 04:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  141. P1 04:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  142. P1 03:57
    Sam Bennett won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  143. P1 03:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Sabourin
  144. P1 03:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Daniil Tarasov
  145. P1 03:10
    Giveaway by Donovan Sebrango in defensive zone
  146. P1 02:30
    Mackie Samoskevich credited with hit on Ryan McDonagh in offensive zone
  147. P1 02:08
    Luke Kunin won faceoff against Gage Goncalves in neutral zone
  148. P1 02:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  149. P1 01:39
    SHOT
    Jeff Petry shot blocked by teammate
  150. P1 01:29
    Giveaway by Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  151. P1 01:03
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Sam Bennett in defensive zone
  152. P1 01:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gustav Forsling saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  153. P1 00:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Erik Cernak
  154. P1 00:15
    Erik Cernak credited with hit on Eetu Luostarinen in neutral zone
  155. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Panthers
STATS
Lightning
34Shots on Goal28
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
6/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
66Penalty Infraction Mins81
17Hits34
5 Shots Blocked 16
16Giveaways18
PanthersFLA
LightningTB
34Shots on Goal28
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
6/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
66Penalty Infraction Mins81
17Hits34
5 Shots Blocked 16
16Giveaways18

Panthers vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Panthers vs. Lightning
  • Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 5.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Panthers +192, Lightning -210

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Panthers: 37%
  • Lightning: 63%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Panthers a win probability of 37%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 63%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Panthers in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Panthers vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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