Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Today's top five home run hitters in the Dimers App

Home run bettors rejoice! FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo is back for the 2026 MLB season, and this year's version gives you the option to choose between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen in the Dimers App.

Speaking of the Dimers App, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up in the app today and get a three-day free trial of Dimers Pro!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – March 31, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate. Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup.

1. Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)

Game: Guardians vs. Dodgers

Dimers Probability: 22.1%

FanDuel Odds: +158

If you want to bet on the unicorn Shohei Ohtani, you'll have to pay a juicy premium tonight as he gets odds of just +158 on FanDuel, even as he looks for his first home run of the season.

Even though he's our top probability at 22.1%, our model says he should be +350 for a fair price. Even with a 50% profit boost, he comes up short of +300.

The reality is, you won't often get fair odds on the super sluggers like Ohtani and Aaron Judge, among others. If you want to bet on Ohtani tonight, he could be a good anchor play in a 2-3 leg parlay, but of course, that comes with more risk.

As far as the matchup, he'll face Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who gave up 14 HR in 98.1 IP to lefties last year, allowed three homers in his first start this season, and is nursing some shoulder discomfort entering this game.

Check the weather, too, as the forecast calls for a 60% chance of rain at gametime.

2. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Game: Nationals vs. Phillies

Dimers Probability: 21.4%

FanDuel Odds: +230

Next up in our top five is Kyle Schwarber, fresh off his career-high 56 HR campaign in 2025, off to a sluggish start so far this year.

Schwarbs hit a dinger in his first game of the year, but has mustered just one hit in 12 AB since. It's only a matter of time before he finds his stride and in the long run, he's likely headed for another season around 40 home runs.

Tonight, he'll face opener PJ Poulin of the Nationals before handing off to a primary pitcher, potential Zack Littell who has yet to pitch in 2026 and gave up the second-most HR in MLB last season.

This puts the matchup itself up in the air as we don't know exactly who Schwarber will face beyond his first AB, but we do know that in his limited work in 2025, he was slightly worse vs. lefties, giving up 2 HR in just 9.1 IP with a 1.55 WHIP.

3. Eugenio Suarez (Reds)

Game: Pirates vs. Reds

Dimers Probability: 19.1%

FanDuel Odds: +340

Another player coming off a career year, Eugenio Suarez hit a career-tying 49 home runs between the Diamondbacks and Mariners last season, before returning to his former club, Cincinnati, this offseason.

Suarez is known as a power hitter and will often take big all-or-nothing swings. Though he clubbed 13 home runs after joining the Mariners midseason, he hit just .189 over 201 at bats and he's hit above .250 just once since 2019, when he last hit 49 HR.

The Pirates will start young prospect Bubba Chandler who tossed 31.1 innings last season, giving up 2 HR, despite his home run analytics like Barrel & and Hard Hit % both ranking in the bottom 50th percentile.

The pitch mix is an interesting case - Chandler threw 4-seam and changeup 87% of the time vs. righties last season, but did mix in the slider from time to time, and that was Suarez's best pitch when it came to slugging the ball.

Strong gusts of wind in the forecast could be a help or hindrance if Suarez gets a hold of one tonight, depending on when they pick up

Today's Top 5 home run hitters in the Dimers app.

4. Juan Soto (Mets)

Game: Mets vs. Cardinals

Dimers Probability: 18.9%

FanDuel Odds: +400

The closest player to an edge on Tuesday night from our top five overall is Juan Soto, whose 18.9% probability would make him fair at +430, just a little off the mark, and well under his +600 odds if you use the 50% profit boost.

Soto has posted three straight career-best HR seasons with three different teams: 35 with the Padres, 41 with the Yankees and 43 with the Mets.

He's hitting well to start the year but looking for his first home run of the season when he faces Andre Pallante tonight.

Pallante gave up 21 home runs last season, at an ever-so-slightly higher rate to lefties and Soto absolutely crushed the pitch mix he deployed vs LHB, especially the 4-seam fastball.

A chance of rain could lead to a delay in this game, but soft winds blowing out could also work in Soto's favor.

5. Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

Game: Red Sox vs. Astros

Dimers Probability: 17.8%

FanDuel Odds: +360

We'll close out the top five with Astros power-hitter Yordan Alvarez who's looking to get back to the 30+ HR floor he showed in four-straight years before injuries derailed his 2025 campaign.

Alvarez isn't too far off the mark for fair odds at +460 and a 50% profit boost would make him a value play.

He's got two home runs this season (should be three if not for the Daikin Park roof) and he's flashing great power to start the year.

Red Sox starter Brayan Bello only gave up 16 home runs last year, dealing more with walk issues than dinger problems. 

Alvarez has dominated right-handed pitching with 25+ HR in three straight seasons before his injury year. as well as great numbers vs. Bello's sinker-anchored pitch mix.

Weather won't be a factor in the closed dome of Daikin Park on Tuesday.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.