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Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit redwings will lock horns in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Red Wings vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Red Wings vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 63% chance of beating the Red Wings.
According to our model, the Red Wings (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Red Wings vs. Lightning odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Wings | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (+122) |
| Moneyline | +172 | -205 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Wings vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Red Wings +1.5 | -140 |
| Moneyline | Red Wings | +172 |
| Total | Under 6 | -105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Red Wings +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Wings vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Red Wings vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Red Wings vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Point a 42.1% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 38.5% |
| Lucas Raymond | 31.1% |
| Marco Kasper | 25.5% |
| Patrick Kane | 22.7% |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygard | 16.5% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 42.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 41.7% |
| Jake Guentzel | 40.0% |
| Brandon Hagel | 31.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 22.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 8.0% |
| Lucas Raymond | 6.1% |
| Marco Kasper | 4.2% |
| Patrick Kane | 4.2% |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygard | 2.7% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 9.2% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.5% |
| Jake Guentzel | 8.5% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.5% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.6% |
Red Wings vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Lightning and Red Wings at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Red Wings on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Red Wings vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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