Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Indian Wells Open 2026

Daniil Medvedev will square off with Sebastian Baez in the round of 32 at the ATP Indian Wells event on Monday.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Daniil Medvedev as the most likely winner of the Medvedev vs. Baez match.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Medvedev vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's Medvedev-Baez men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Medvedev an 81% chance of defeating Baez at the ATP Indian Wells Open tournament.

Additionally, Medvedev has a 76% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Baez (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 20.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Baez odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Medvedev vs. Baez picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 20.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Medvedev vs. Baez updates and essential details

The ATP Indian Wells Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to begin on Monday at 10:30 PM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Sebastian Baez
• Date: Monday, March 9, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Indian Wells, USA Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with an 81% win probability, will likely beat Sebastian Baez at the ATP Indian Wells Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Medvedev vs. Baez insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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