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Stars vs. Penguins prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins predictions for NHL Saturday.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Dallas Stars are scheduled to meet in the NHL at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday, with puck drop at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Stars a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Penguins.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's Stars vs. Penguins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Stars and Penguins, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Stars a 54% chance of beating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Stars vs. Penguins odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+176) | +1.5 (-200) |
| Moneyline | -140 | +120 |
| Total | o6 (-120) | u6 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Penguins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Penguins +1.5 | -200 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | +120 |
| Total | Under 6 | +100 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Stars vs. Penguins player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Penguins?
According to our model, Wyatt Johnston is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Penguins.
Our projections give Johnston a 37.3% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is a 7.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 37.3% |
| Jason Robertson | 37.2% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 33.6% |
| Matt Duchene | 28.0% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 23.7% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell | 32.7% |
| Bryan Rust | 31.7% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 29.4% |
| Anthony Mantha | 27.9% |
| Thomas Novak | 27.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 7.9% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 7.3% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 7.0% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.9% |
| Matt Duchene | 4.4% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell | 6.6% |
| Bryan Rust | 6.1% |
| Anthony Mantha | 4.9% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 4.9% |
| Thomas Novak | 4.6% |
Stars vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Penguins and Stars at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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