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Stars vs. Islanders prediction: Dallas favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Dallas Stars vs NY Islanders predictions for NHL Thursday.
The NY Islanders and Dallas Stars will lock horns in the NHL at UBS Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Stars a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Islanders.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Stars vs. Islanders matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Isles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Stars and Islanders, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Stars a 54% chance of beating the Islanders.
According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Stars vs. Islanders odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+205) | +1.5 (-225) |
| Moneyline | -122 | +108 |
| Total | o5.5 (-118) | u5.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Islanders picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars -1.5 | +205 |
| Moneyline | Stars | -122 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Stars to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Stars vs. Islanders player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Islanders?
According to our model, Wyatt Johnston is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Islanders.
Our projections give Johnston a 39.2% chance of scoring a goal at UBS Arena, while the star is an 8.5% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 39.2% |
| Jason Robertson | 38.7% |
| Matt Duchene | 30.4% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 24.9% |
| Jamie Benn | 22.1% |
NY Islanders
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 32.4% |
| Anders Lee | 27.1% |
| Mathew Barzal | 23.8% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 22.2% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 21.8% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 8.5% |
| Jason Robertson | 7.8% |
| Matt Duchene | 5.8% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.8% |
| Jamie Benn | 4.4% |
NY Islanders
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 6.1% |
| Anders Lee | 5.6% |
| Mathew Barzal | 5.0% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 4.3% |
| Matthew Schaefer | 4.2% |
Stars vs. Isles game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Islanders and Stars at UBS Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. NY Islanders
- Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: UBS Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Islanders insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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