Stars vs. Wild prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [4/30/2026]

The Minnesota Wild will face the Dallas Stars in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Wild a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Stars.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's Stars vs. Wild matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Stars vs. Wild prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL Playoffs matchup between the Stars and Wild, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Wild a 53% chance of beating the Stars.

According to our model, the Stars (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of going over.

Stars vs. Wild odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Stars	Wild
Puck Line	+1.5 (-225)	-1.5 (+200)
Moneyline	+106	-125
Total	o5.5 (-118)	u5.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Stars vs. Wild picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Stars +1.5	-225
Moneyline	Stars	+106
Total	Over 5.5	-118

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Stars +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Stars vs. Wild player props

Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Wild?

According to our model, Kirill Kaprizov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Wild.

Our projections give Kaprizov a 38.5% chance of scoring a goal at Grand Casino Arena, while the star is a 7.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Dallas Stars

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Mikko Rantanen	34.1%
Jason Robertson	33.6%
Wyatt Johnston	31.9%
Matt Duchene	24.0%
Mavrik Bourque	21.6%

Minnesota Wild

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Kirill Kaprizov	38.5%
Matt Boldy	33.2%
Joel Ek	23.4%
Ryan Hartman	21.8%
Mats Zuccarello	18.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Dallas Stars

Player	First Goal Probability
Mikko Rantanen	6.9%
Jason Robertson	6.6%
Wyatt Johnston	6.2%
Matt Duchene	4.3%
Mavrik Bourque	4.0%

Minnesota Wild

Player	First Goal Probability
Kirill Kaprizov	7.1%
Matt Boldy	7.0%
Ryan Hartman	4.0%
Joel Ek	4.0%
Vladimir Tarasenko	3.6%

Stars vs. Wild game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Wild and Stars in the NHL Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
• Date: Thursday, April 30, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Grand Casino Arena

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the National Hockey League's annual elimination tournament to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Stars and Wild, reached the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is played as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Wild, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Stars in Thursday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.