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Stars vs. Flames prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Calgary Flames will take on the Dallas Stars in NHL action at Scotiabank Saddledome on Tuesday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Stars as the most likely winner of the Stars vs. Flames game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Flames prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Stars and Flames 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Stars a 55% chance of beating the Flames.
According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Stars vs. Flames odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+190) | +1.5 (-210) |
| Moneyline | -135 | +115 |
| Total | o5.5 (-120) | u5.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Flames picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flames +1.5 | -210 |
| Moneyline | Flames | +115 |
| Total | Under 5.5 | +105 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 5.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Stars vs. Flames player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Flames?
According to our model, Jason Robertson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Flames.
Our projections give Robertson a 42.8% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Saddledome, while the star is a 9.5% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 42.8% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 41.1% |
| Matt Duchene | 31.7% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 26.7% |
| Jamie Benn | 17.6% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 29.4% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 25.6% |
| Matthew Coronato | 24.3% |
| Adam Klapka | 19.6% |
| Matvei Gridin | 19.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 9.5% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 9.1% |
| Matt Duchene | 6.4% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 5.1% |
| Jamie Benn | 3.2% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 5.5% |
| Matthew Coronato | 4.7% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 4.6% |
| Adam Klapka | 3.9% |
| Joel Farabee | 3.7% |
Stars vs. Flames game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between the Flames and Stars at Scotiabank Saddledome is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Calgary Flames
- Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Stars vs. Flames insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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