Avalanche vs. Capitals prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [3/22/2026]

NHL action continues on Sunday at 12:30 PM ET as the Colorado Avalanche lock horns with the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Avalanche as the most likely winner of the Avalanche vs. Capitals game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Avs vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Avalanche and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Avalanche a 58% chance of defeating the Capitals.

According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Avalanche vs. Capitals odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Avalanche	Capitals
Puck Line	-1.5 (+154)	+1.5 (-170)
Moneyline	-162	+146
Total	o6 (-120)	u6 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Avalanche vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Capitals +1.5	-170
Moneyline	Capitals	+146
Total	Under 6	+100

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Capitals +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Avalanche vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Avalanche vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Martin Necas is most likely to score an anytime goal in Avalanche vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Necas a 34.5% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 6.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Martin Necas	34.5%
Brock Nelson	30.0%
Nazem Kadri	29.9%
Gabriel Landeskog	29.8%
Valeri Nichushkin	29.3%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Aliaksei Protas	27.9%
Alex Ovechkin	27.1%
Dylan Strome	24.2%
Tom Wilson	24.2%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	21.1%

First goal scorer predictions

Colorado Avalanche

Player	First Goal Probability
Martin Necas	6.8%
Nazem Kadri	6.5%
Valeri Nichushkin	5.8%
Gabriel Landeskog	5.8%
Brock Nelson	5.5%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Aliaksei Protas	4.9%
Alex Ovechkin	4.8%
Tom Wilson	4.7%
Dylan Strome	4.5%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	4.0%

Avs vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Capitals and Avalanche at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 12:30 PM ET.

• Who: Colorado Avalanche vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
• Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30AM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Avalanche, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Avalanche vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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